Posts under ‘Seeking Alpha’

Extract from the Seeking Alpha article by Fluidsdoc dated 7 Dec 2021:

Royal Dutch Shell: The Wind Farm At The End Of The Universe

The Prelude debacle

Shell gets a lot of credit for being an able and experienced project manager, and when it’s their core business, they are. By comparison, Prelude, an FLNG project, has to be considered a financial and technical disaster by any measure, and a lot of that involves mistakes by Shell. An article from last year notes-

While the Prelude did export LNG at about half its capacity for the second half of 2019, it is now idle. read more

Seeking Alpha

Shell Jumps Out Of Fire And Lands In The Frying Pan

• Shell’s move to exit the Dutch tax and legal jurisdiction is officially presented as an issue of dividend taxation that Shell and others hoped for years to see it repealed.
• Though it is not much discussed by Shell or the media, the harsh environmental ruling by a Dutch court that forces Shell to cut emissions may have played a role.
• Even though Shell is not currently faced with similar legal pressures in the UK, it may nevertheless feel other pressures to cut emissions by a similar margin.
• Shell’s upstream segment is the most likely part of the business that will be sacrificed to environmental pressures.
• Shell will most likely try to adapt its LNG and petrochemicals sector to lower emissions, that will make it less profitable. Higher natural gas prices will add to profitability concerns.

Investment thesis: Shell (RDS.A), (RDS.B) is leaving the Dutch legal jurisdiction, officially due to some dividend tax issues and it will make the UK its sole home base. Unofficially, it may be in large part a way to escape a court-imposed emissions reduction demand on its business activities. While the move to escape a legally binding cut of 45% compared with 2020 levels by 2030 is potentially avoided through this move, the internal, as well as external pressures for it to cut emissions, hydrocarbons production, and so on, will not cease. read more

Seeking Alpha

Shell likely to miss own emission reduction goals, shareholder group says

Seeking Alpha

Royal Dutch Shell: Mid-Year 2021 Review

Tudor Invest Holdings: Aug. 03. 2021

Summary

• Higher commodity prices in Q2 pushed free cash flow to $12.7 billion.
• Shareholders should welcome the 38% increase in dividend and plan of share buyback.
• But the share price action seems to tell that the market is not that impressed.
• Net Zero carbon emission seems very ambitious to say the least.

FULL ARTICLE

Seeking Alpha

Shell plans to hang on to Norco refinery – Reuters

Seeking Alpha

Oil giants grope for next steps after day of devastating defeats

Shell investor RWC to support alternate climate proposal at upcoming AGM

Royal Dutch Shell: One Year Later, Shareholders Are $50 Billion Poorer Despite Solid Results

Summary

Shell climate plan draws fund opposition at upcoming AGM

Shell’s Nigerian accounts frozen in oil deal dispute

Shell’s Strategy Is Satisfactory

Summary

• This article takes a close look at Shell’s Strategy Day 2021, which focused on a net-zero emissions target and the businesses that Shell plans to operate.
• Ultimately, Shell isn’t changing its strategy too much, sticking to its core oil and gas businesses.
• By focusing on oil and gas and value over volume, Shell is a safer bet than BP which is betting big on a risky corporate restructuring.

The purpose of this article is to analyze Shell’s recent and very important Strategy Day. Shell had promised to give a lot of detail on an organizational restructuring at this event and it had the potential to radically change Shell’s direction. This means the Strategy Day presentations had a possibility to change my bullish thesis on the company. In that article I also gave some of my expectations of what I expected to see in Shell’s Strategy Day, and here I review the key takeaways of the Strategy Day and what they mean for my bullish thesis. read more

Shell’s ‘Hard Look’ At Nigeria – All Bark No Bite

Dilya Safine, CFA: Feb. 08, 2021 4:50 PM ET Royal Dutch Shell plc

Summary

• Shell’s comments on its Q4 call about “taking a hard look” at its onshore Nigeria assets prompted concerns that it might look to exit the region.
• I estimate that its onshore Nigerian assets to be worth at least 6% of its stock price, as well as the backbone for its offshore and LNG expansions.
• I believe that Shell’s comments are aimed at achieving more favorable terms for its other contract negotiations. More details at its Analyst Day.

Q4 Earnings: Comments on Nigeria Raise Alarms

On its 4Q’20 earnings call, Shell CEO Ben van Beurden called the company’s Nigerian assets a “headache” and said it is time to “take a hard look” at the company’s operations in the country. He cited frequent incidents of oil theft and operational challenges in the Niger Delta, blaming the leaks that his company had been forced to clean and compensate for on pipeline sabotage. These comments raised alarms that Shell (NYSE:RDS.A)(NYSE:RDS.B) might look to exit the country, and the stock fell as a result. RDS is expected to provide additional detail on its operations during its Strategy Day this week. However, I believe that the company is unlikely to halt its operations in the region, as it would have a material impact on its valuation and impact other areas of its business, as I explain below. read more

Conclusion: I Regard Shell As Uninvestable

Shell: What It Will Take To Be Investible Again

Summary

• Shell’s dividend cut and unpredictability last year cost it a lot of shareholder confidence.
• I outline three metrics I think show whether it’s investable again.
• On all three metrics, I continue to see it as uninvestable with confidence.

U.K.-based oil major Shell (RDS.A, OTCPK:RYDAF) didn’t have a great time of it last year when it came to shareholder relations. With its mammoth dividend cut and poor signaling thereof before it was made, a lot of shareholders ditched the holding. I sold my entire stake and reinvested the proceeds in more Exxon Mobil (XOM).

Below, I outline what I think are the key challenges to Shell being investable at this point. read more

Shell’s warning signals pain not yet over for oil majors

Green transition friction prompts wave of resignations at Shell